SEMICON and SOLARCON China 2009

New Killer Apps for 2010 and Beyond

What are the hot new future applications that will help drive semiconductor manufacturing volumes in the upturn? What are the killer apps that will drive the market like the Internet, mobile phones and ipods? Here’s my take on a few (its a wireless world):

Ultra wideband- UWB is a radio technology that can be used at very low energy levels for short-range high-bandwidth communications such as Personal Area Networks (PANS), sensor networks, and cable replacements for audio video, printing and other applications. At least a dozen mainly venture-backed companies have been pursuing UWB for uses such as wireless USB links on consumer and computer gear. To date, relatively high prices as well as performance and regulatory hurdles have limited the market for the wireless links. We want this market to take off; we know it someday will. But when? With the recent demise of a couple of the early leaders, the jury is still out on UWB.


Zigbee- ZigBee is a low-cost, low-power, wireless mesh networking standard for wireless control and monitoring applications. The low power-usage allows longer life with smaller batteries, and the mesh networking provides high reliability and larger range. The initial markets for the ZigBee Alliance include consumer electronics, energy management, home automation, building automation and industrial automation. The technology is intended to be simpler and less expensive than Bluetooth. ZigBee chip vendors such as TI, Freescale and Ember typically sell integrated radios and microcontrollers with between 60K and 128K flash memory. The standard, and the chips that support it, will probably play a critical role in the Smart Grid deployment, as well as related home automation products. Zigbee has a broad range of applications and looks like it has some momentum. Looks like a winner to me.

NFC- Another interesting short-wave wireless technology is Near Field Communications (NFC). NFC seems to have evolved from RFID and will be an enabling technology for mobile payment systems. Operating at 13.56 MHz and transferring data at up to 424 Kbits/second, communication between two NFC-compatible devices occurs when they are brought within four centimeters of one another. Because the transmission range is so short, NFC-enabled transactions are inherently secure and intuitively safe.

NFC can be used with a variety of devices, from mobile phones that enable payment or transfer information to digital cameras that send their photos to a TV set with just a touch. The possibilities are endless, and NFC is sure to take the complexities out of today’s increasingly sophisticated consumer devices and make them simpler to use. Mobile payment systems make sense, but until I see they them widely used in places like Singapore, Hong Kong or Helsinki, I wouldn’t bet on them in the short term.

Cloud Computing--The concept of Cloud Computing received a fair amount of talk at SEMICON Japan by folks like Terry Higashi and Takeo Hoshino of METI. The concept revolves around Internet-based services, large server farms and ‘software as a service.” While it might the drive the need for better chips to enable lower power computing, I don’t see it driving volumes. The trends toward connecting everything to the net—including refrigerators, ATMs, industrial machinery, security cameras, etc.—is already in full swing. I don’t see it providing a step function increase in chip volumes, but it will fuel a more accommodating world for Netbooks and Internet appliances.

WIMAX- According to Infonetics Research, combined worldwide equipment revenues were up only 3% from Q1'2008 to $402 million, and we assume they went into the crapper in Q4. Before the financial collapse, Infonetics predicted that by 2011, 110 million users of WiMAX technologies are forecasted. The WiMAX Forum now claims there are over 400 WiMAX networks deployed in over 130 countries. Developing countries have been the engine for WiMAX market growth, with Central and Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa, Central and Latin America, and parts of the Asia Pacific being hot-beds of activity. Intel is the current leader in chipsets, but there are nearly 20 companies are now producing baseband chip-sets for mobile WiMAX and there are probably 15 suppliers of WiMAX radio transceiver chips (Forward Concepts). That bodes well for easy adoption by handset makers and network managers. Bandwidth-makes-sense. Count on WiMAX for a nice contribution in chip volumes over the next 5 years.

Other more familiar applications that will drive semiconductor volumes in the future will be solid state drives, Wi-Fi (see a lot of upside), mobiles phones (both high end and low end), and handheld electronics like ipods (more video) and ebooks. The real driver though will be general economic health, especially in developing regions.

What's New at SEMICON West

Interesting Text-to-Speech application from Xtranormal

From the Cultural Revolution to the Solar Revolution

Samuel Yang, Vice General Manager of JA Solar was among the recent speakers at this week’s SOLARCON China and he told an interesting story about how people during China’s Cultural Revolution survived and adapted during times of great stress. He told the story to reflect on today’s difficult economic situation. During this time, education was disdained; professionals and academics were sent to re-education camps to learn the values of the collective commune. Families adapted by learning to educate their children at home, often in secret. When times changed, the country was stronger, having instilled a broad based, grounded respect for knowledge and educational achievement.

Drawing parallels to today, he said that now is the time to focus on internal strengths. He said that individual companies can’t control the macroeconomic environment, they can only adapt to opportunities all around them. He used another uniquely-Chinese example to make his point by describing how the mythical Chinese warrior may lose a battle, but will retreat to the mountains to develop his skills for a triumphant return.

The most common mantra in the West for dealing with the global recession is the oft-quoted remarks by Craig Barrett at Intel: “Every time you have a recession, you try to save your way out. Never works. You have to invest your way out of a recession.”

Every culture, every individual, every business is dealing with the economic crisis in different ways, some effectively, some less so.

There are many personal and organizational responses to the catastrophic recession: work harder, focus on core competencies, diversify, learn new skills, customer-focus, cut costs, etc. These common responses are certainly valid and rational. They can be accompanied with elaborate details, complete with project schedules, pert charts, balance sheets, business scenarios, and action plans. What they often lack though, is passion.

The semiconductor industry was built on passion. Pioneers of the industry knew they were building the Information Age. They knew they were part of a unique time in the human story, comparable to the Renaissance, the Reformation, the Industrial Age, the Age of Democracy. There was greatness all around them and they knew they were making history.

This passion was the foundation of SEMI. It drew leaders together, not just through mutual business interest and shared objectives, but through the shared experience of extraordinary times, accomplishing remarkable achievements that extended beyond themselves, their companies, even their industry, and impacting the entire human experience.

Much of this passion, this knowledge of greatness, is leaving the industry. The Information Age is nearly 30 years old. A new generation of leaders is desperately trying to survive. A common perception exists that even when the rebound occurs, the industry will never be the same. As the industry association, SEMI could never be more valuable, more effective, better staffed, better managed, more global than today, but the binding emotional spark of an earlier era, the shared reward of participating in a historical era, is distant and cloudy.

But a new age is upon us where great genius, great urgency, great opportunity, and great need are dawning. Solar energy will remake the world, maybe even save it. Unsubsidized grid parity is fast approaching and will occur in most regions of the world by the end of the decade. By 2050, solar power could deliver over 50% of the world’s electricity, bringing light, heat and hope to billions of people currently without grid connected power. It is the leading solution that could protect the world from devastating climate change.

It is a mission every bit as an important, worthwhile, life affirming, and valuable as that which drove the semiconductor industry and the Information Age. It is this generation’s call to greatness.

Not all SEMI members currently participate in the solar industry, but many are extending their knowledge of wafer processing and thin film manufacturing to PV. Many are asking the association to take a leadership position in PV, to address both the shared business interests of the industry, as well as provide the emotional connections of joining a monumental global challenge. They are asking us to invest scarce resources into PV and transition away from semiconductors to the emerging opportunities and overwhelming demands of the nascent solar industry. These are difficult, gut-wrenching decisions for SEMI, not without enormous risk. These same risks are being faced by many SEMI members who are peering into the future of semiconductors and are uncertain and fearful of the shape of what they dimly see.

Especially during these trying times, individuals and companies have to make difficult decisions. Sometimes the right decision is to work harder, work smarter, retrench, right-size, and retreat into the mountains to save yourself for future battles. Yet greatness doesn’t retrench. It seeks to change the world in ways that few can foresee. The founders of the semiconductor industry knew this. The leaders of the next great epoch in science and technology know this as well.

Dow Corning Rocks

Event Marketing in 2009: Challenges, Changes and Opportunities

I had the fortunate opportunity to participate in a panel discussion on the state of the events business, hosted by the International Association of Exhibitions and Events (IAEE). The title of the two-hour discussion was Event Marketing in 2009: Challenges, Changes and Opportunities and was focused on the economy’s impact of on the event industry and how exhibit, event and show managers were responding.

It was a timely topic and I really enjoyed to opportunity to discuss SEMI plans and my own personal feelings about what I see as a radical shift in the events industry. Joining me on the panel were event superstars representing a diverse cross section of perspectives and industries.

- Sandra Toms-LaPedis, AVP/ GM RSA Conference (information security industry)
- Scott Schenker, VP Client Services George P Johnson (global leader in event marketing; top auto show and corporate events marketer)
- Debra Rosencrance, VP Meetings and Exhibits for American Academy of Opthalmology

In terms of how SEMI was responding, I reiterated my mantra that I have been droning on about with exhibitors, suppliers, employees, wife, kids…
Our response to dead economy is in 5 key areas:

• Diversification into solal
• Increased emphasis on new and emerging markets, both industry (solid state lighting, printed electronics, MEMS, nano and others) and geographically (Russia, India, China)
• Focus on global sales coordination and efficiency (we have reorganized to realigned our sales and outreach team to work faster, smarter and more as a team)
• Forming mutually rewarding partnerships with other events and associations (Synergy!)
• A relentless commitment to lowering the total cost to exhibit for our members and customers

This last point on cost reduction efforts was my main point and something I wanted to shake up the room with. I told the audience that I was representing thousands of exhibitors who were under enormous pressure to improve show ROI in this economy and that SEMI was totally committed to helping exhibitors reduce the total cost of exhibitors. In pursuit of this, we are going to our hotels, service contractors, facilities, shipping companies, and our own operations and telling them the world has changed, you must reduce your price to our exhibitors. We are doing this on a worldwide basis and we are not being nice about it. We are being successful.

We even welcomed anyone who could partner with us to pressure the city and Moscone Center to gain concessions from the unions. I believe that now is the time to seek real change with the labor situation in San Fran and press for rationality in rates and process.

This is also a critical time in the careers of many exhibit and event managers. Every recession seems to hit marketing budgets first, especially trade shows. And when trade shows are canceled, exhibit managers and trade show coordinators are often the first to get laid off. I have seen this up close and personal for nearly 30 years and it’s a killing zone right out there today. You don’t see too many old timers in this business; they get crushed, weeded out.

Young, talented people often get their start through event marketing. They develop skills, professional expertise, they benchmark leaders, understand best practices and learn how to integrate events to an integrated marketing system. And then the recession gets them. When the shows go, they follow. They are seen as chained to their medium, not to their businesses. They know more about laminates and event lighting than they do about their products and customers. Trade shows are a cruel business and people who aren’t grounded in business fundamentals and prepared for other roles, functions and responsibilities will eventually get caught when times go sour. And they always go sour, sometime.

So, I hoped to share some of those observations and practices with this great group of committed professionals. I hope it helped someone. It made me feel better.

Partnerships: Now More Than Ever

One of the most effective and efficient ways to serve SEMI members is to work with other member organizations and associations. It can be effective because other associations can deliver real benefits to SEMI members, such as program content, research reports, technical insights and initiatives, and other valuable services. It can be efficient because SEMI staff can work with one partner, and impact an entire segment of members sharing the common interest. Identifying potential partners and finding common purpose is a critical area that SEMI needs to excel at.

SEMI is a very wide-ranging industry association that spans numerous technologies, industry segments, countries, and professional societies. We are wide but very thin. Many professional and industry organizations are very deep, but narrow in their geographic and technology reach. This reflective harmony provides a natural basis on which to work with many organizations in a win-win relationship. Our reach compliments their depth. By working together, we can both achieve goals that we could not separately.

SEMI works with dozens of industry organizations, media companies, research firms, and technical societies. Our relationship is often based on cross promotion; SEMI promotes a partner's event or organization in exchange for promotion or support of SEMI events and services. Many partners provide technical guidance on SEMI program content at conferences and expositions and some partners offer member discounts on their products.

A recent partnership with the MEMS Industry Group is a good example. Currently SEMI places MIG events on our calendar and is promoting MEMS Marketplace, an online portal that will serve as a matchmaker for companies in the entire MEMS supply chain, in our newsletter. In exchange, MIG will promote SEMICON West to their membership and provide guidance on TechXPOT program content. We have several other industry partners at SEMICON West, including Si2, IMAPS, MEPTEC, International Engineering Consortium, Southwest Test, BITS, OIDA, and more. We partner with IEEE on the Advanced Semiconductor Manufacturing Conference, and we should do more them. In PV, we work with EPIA, JPEA, ITRI, SEIA, and many renewable energy organizations.

Sometimes SEMI will partner with a private event organizer like Solar Promotions to put on Intersolar, or with a market research company such as Yole Developpment, when we are confident it will benefit SEMI members.

The driving motivation behind these mutually rewarding agreements is member value; if helping another organization achieve their goals, even with a potentially competitive event, helps SEMI members, that we should find a way to work together.

If there is an organization that you think SEMI should work with, please let us know and we’ll do our best to find a common ground in advancing member value.

Equipment Bookings Lowest Levels Since 1991

North America-based manufacturers of semiconductor equipment posted $285.6 million in orders in January 2009 (three-month average basis). The bookings figure is about 51 percent less than the final December 2008 level of $579.1 million, and about 75 percent less than the $1.14 billion in orders posted in January 2008.

Bookings are at the lowest levels since 1991.

Sheeeesh, 1991!

Can you remember 1991? It was two years before Marc Andresson developed the MOSIAC browser. The World Wide Web as we know it wasn’t even developed. Few people knew what a modem was. Windows and SoundBlaster and Netscape hadn’t been released.

In cell phones, GSM, or 2G technology had just been invented. No one had ever sent a text message before. the Microtack flip phone was $3000 bucks.

1991. Oh man.

Obama Signs Semiconductor Industry Bailout

February 20, 2009, WASHINGTON, D.C.— Racing to reverse the country’s economic spiral and decline in technology leadership, President Barack Obama signed the $5 billion semiconductor industry support plan. The plan would provide semiconductor manufacturers tax and other incentives for locating and expanding chip fabs in the US.

So what’s the most surprising aspect to this faked news? The idea that Congress has the semiconductor industry on their radar or that they could understand and agree upon a plan that would stem the tide of technology outsourcing?

A number like $5 billion (Intel will spend a total of $7 billion on capital expenses in the US this year) could have enormous impact. Even though the recent stimulus bill had $30 billion for a smart power grid and energy efficiency measures, $20 billion in tax incentives for renewable energy, $19 billion to accelerate digitizing health records, and even $7 billion to provide broadband to underserved communities, it still seems shocking that Congress would give $5 billion to semiconductor manufacturing.

Internet access, digital TV, Green, roads and sewers, state government all get a piece.

Semiconductors…zilch, nada, zed.

Reducing the Cost to Participate in SEMICONS

The global recession and semiconductor industry shutdown has created enormous pressure on SEMICON exhibitors. Virtually every mid-to-large SEMI member has announced layoffs and is experiencing severe financial crisis.

In response to these pressures, SEMI is working hard on aggressive cost cutting and value-enhancements to our shows. Because booth space costs often represent only one dollar in four of the total cost to exhibit, effective show management requires us to work closely (beg, negotiate, hammer, etc.) contractors, facilities, hotels, shipping firms—even exhibit managers—to affect the total cost of participating in SEMI events. For every event in every region, we are looking at across-the-board solutions to reduce exhibiting cost, including making the necessary improvements to our own cost structure to enable stable, if not reduced booth space prices, for 2010 and beyond.

Here are some of the some of the current efforts to reduce costs to exhibitors:

• Renegotiated service contractor and subcontractors contract at SEMICON West resulting in up to 10% savings for many exhibitors
• Moved SEMICON Europa location to Dresden for lower exhibitor costs and higher quality attendance. Service contractor costs have been reduced by as much 50% and hotel rates 30% less
• Developed and introduced low cost turnkey exhibit booth, and executive meeting suite options for West, Europa, China and Singapore
• Conducted exhibitor training sessions on lower cost exhibiting for SEMICON West
• Added new buyers through SOLARCON co-located events in China, Korea and Singapore. Exploring other co-location and partnership options to add audience value and reduce costs
• Went out for bid on international shipping and selected new vendor with lower rates
• Aggressively renegotiating facility contracts for 2010 in West, Singapore, Japan, Taiwan and China

I promise you increased efforts on cost reduction will continue. I firmly believe that the global economic crisis is particularly affecting the trade show industry, shifting the balance of power back to show organizers like SEMI. In a buyers market, we should be able to work with other organizers to pull back labor rates, contractor services, hotel rates, and facilities costs. We plan to actively partnering with other shows and industries to see if something can be collectively done to pull back the total cost to exhibit in every region where we operate.

Great expositions are the product of great collaborations between exhibitors and show managers, and during this time, it is imperative that SEMI wield as much power, influence and ingenuity to help our member exhibitors. As an association, we take our role as representative for exhibitors very seriously and we are working night and day to make SEMICONS the best possible value they can be.

Craig Barrett on the recession

SEMICON Korea

Halleluiah. SEMICON Korea was a successful show, achieving both attendee registration expectations and exhibitor satisfaction ratings based on preliminary results (we will have official results and more quantifiable satisfaction ratings at a later date).

During these economic times, this wasn’t a certain outcome. With industry cap spending paralyzed, and the memory market in atrophy, we didn’t know what to expect with attendance in Korea. As you might expect, companies are slashing marketing budgets and exhibitor cancellations are occurring at industry events worldwide. Compounding the normal economic dread, rumors of a Samsung reorganization had us all fearing that no one who show up.

But exhibitor cancellations didn’t really materialize in Korea. The show didn’t pick up the normally late registering marginal exhibitor, but the core exhibitors still came and showed their best stuff. Final results: 460 exhibitors, occupying 1300 booths.

Total visitors topped 23,000, a little more than last year. The crowds were as you expect, the right people came, exhibitors saw who they wanted to, and there was that typical SEMICON energy of folks working the show with purpose. Of course, spending isn’t happening and this makes people glum, but exhibitors had good attitudes and often expressed reasonable expectations for brighter times just around the corner.

Part of the good attendance was the added draw of PV products and services with the inaugural SOLARCON Korea. This co-located PV event featured 100 booths and a complete 2-day conference. Korea is a sleeping giant in the PV world, with strong government incentive fuelling local demand, and emerging equipment, materials, cell and module powerhouses serving the export market.

SEMICON Korea is also unique in that it features a strong solid state lighting segment, drawing additional synergies for this related industry.

For SEMI and many of our exhibitors, SEMICON Korea was seen as a potential bellweather for industry events in 2009, specifically: would buyers come during these difficult times? Fortunately for our exhibitors, the answer is yes. In fact, we may see regional SEMICON events benefiting from the restrictions on international travel. And, there’s always the interplay between money to spend and time to spend it. When orders are booming, some people are too busy to attend events; when demand swoons, they have plenty of time, but no money to spend.

A Solar Farm in your hands

Five Reasons to Exhibit During A Recession

One of the most prominent quotes in our industry during this recession is by Craig Barrett who said last September, "You can't save your way out of a recession, you have to invest your way out."

This is true for marketing as it is for any other functional area. Successful companies move forward, during good times and bad. They differentiate, they compete, they showcase their committment, strength and vision. They work to create and influence the future, not fall victims to it.

And for many companies, marketing in the semiconductor industry involves exhibiting at a SEMICON event. There's just not that many alternative mediums, mechanisms and tools out there to influence customers. For many companies, exhibiting is hard during this nuclear winter. Everyone is cutting cost costs and cutting staff and ROI in trade shows can be elusive. But the same reasons you exhibit in good times are at present during tough times. Sometime they are even more present. Here's my five top reasons to exhibit during a recession:

1. Now more than ever, companies need to differentiate their products and company in the marketplace to protect their margins and market share. The industry is consolidating and customers are looking for suppliers that provide meaningful, long-term benefits that other companies can’t match.

2. Now more than ever, suppliers need to prove they are sustainable and can survive these tough times. Companies need to demonstrate their R&D and product roadmaps are not being sacrificed to cost cutting. Customers have never been skeptical about suppliers’ schedules, capabilities, financial viability, and commitment to the semiconductor industry.

3. Now more than ever, companies need to compete aggressively to win 2009 and 2010 sales opportunities. Numerous studies have shown that companies that continue to invest in marketing during recessions gain market share.

4. Now more than ever, suppliers need to collaborate with their customers to position their products for the eventual upturn. Customers are responding to the downturn by thoroughly examining their processes, products and key vendors. Active, credible, engaged participants in the customer planning process will be the big winners in the next upturn.

5. Now more than ever, companies need to be efficient and effective in their marketing and new product introduction plans to achieve meaningful results. In the semiconductor industry, companies that utilize integrated marketing programs that combine pre-show communications, event-based marketing and product introductions, and post-show messaging and strategic sales follow-through will ramp up sales faster and more efficiently than companies who have gutted their marketing and sales support programs.

Heard at ISS

Demand is being destroyed on a very large scale.

The US Dollar- The best looking horse in the glue factory

This too shall pass.

When the bottom falls out, the impact can be both real and psychological...it can be both cyclical & generational...Do pre‐crisis assumptions still hold?

We are bullish on stocks... semicaps should lead recovery

Moore’s Law doesn’t apply in analog and it hasn’t hurt prosperity.

I am very optimistic about where we are going.

Things will get worse, could get a lot worse

Start each day with a smile and get it over with.

You can’t save your way out of a recession, you have to invest out of it.

The semiconductor suicide hot line is open.

Demand is only deferred, not destroyed.

Do not let a crisis go unused. This is our moment!

The economy accelerates trends.

Option #1: Wait around for the next “killer” app.
Option #2: Create the tools to enable innovation.

Real men build power plants

Favorite Slide:

300 mm Prime: Now More Than Ever

Worldwide semiconductor manufacturing equipment sales have declined to levels not seen since 2003 and the industry anticipates a second year of double-digit decline in 2009. According to the year-end edition of the SEMI Capital Equipment Forecast, sales of wafer processing equipment are expected to decline by about 28 percent in 2008 to $22.95 billion, and drop another 21 percent in 2009 to $17.91.

Gartner predicts total equipment spending in 2008 will reach US$31.1 billion (down 30.6% from 2007) and fall 31.7 % in 2009 to $21.2 billion. iSupply forecasts capital spending by chip makers on equipment will decline to $35.2 billion in 2009, down 17.6 percent from 2008, the lowest level of spending since 2003. The outlook for 2010 is uncertain at best.

Under these market conditions, chip makers are looking for practical improvements in fab productivity and focused on overcoming enormous challenges in keeping pace with Moore’s Law. Equipment manufacturers are simply trying to survive and channeling scarce R&D dollars into new product and technology solutions that customers will buy.

To address these industry priorities, SEMI formed the Global Equipment Suppliers Group (GESG) to address critical technology and business issues that affect the semiconductor industry. The initial focus of the GESG was to support of the industry wide effort on 300 mm Prime, a broad set of product, process and technology initiatives designed to enhance 300 mm fab productivity.

The SEMI Board of Directors also commissioned a the Equipment Productivity Working Group (EPWG) to address 450 mm wafer transition and work with ISMI on various studies, as well as performing independent analysis and surveys of critical technology roadmap issues. The mission of these two special interest groups is to maintain a forum for equipment suppliers to address issues facing the industry and to develop an organized global voice to influence technology roadmaps, device maker and foundry planning, supply chain collaboration, and related issues.

In 2007, the International SEMATECH Manufacturing Initiative (ISMI) announced its 300mm Next Generation Factory (NGF) Program to support the industry’s need for lower costs and reduced cycle time in 300mm wafer manufacturing. The ISMI 300mm NGF Program promised to take a wider look at 300mm productivity with a broader set of initiatives with some of the work transportable to older 200mm and 150mm factories.

Initial projects comprising the 300mm NGF Program included First Wafer Delay/Setup Reduction, Predictive, Preventative Maintenance (PPM), Equipment Data Quality, and
Fab-wide EDA proliferation.

Since the ISMI NGF announcement and the formation of the EPWG and GESG, considerable time, money and attention has been devoted to the economic viability and justifications for a next generation wafer size. In June of 2008, EPWG released a report that analyzed the economics of 450 mm wafer transition. Among the report’s conclusions were that the semiconductor business today is consumer-driven, and needs to be capable of handling short-run, rapid-change products with very short cycle times were paramount. The report also concluded that reduced cost for 300 mm wafer processing was driven by the use of factory automation, advanced process control systems, and mini-environments (FOUPs).

Current market conditions reinforce these conclusions and call for a renewed efforts to advance industry-wide productivity solutions under the current 300 mm Prime and Next Generation Fab framework. Much of the resources placed on 450 mm wafer transition have detracted from the 300 Prime efforts that could have widespread benefits throughout the industry. Agile fabs and cost reduction are what the industry needs today, not expensive gambles on wafer size that transition that further threaten Moore’s law and the economic viability of the global semiconductor industry. This is what we are spending time and attention on in SEMICON programs; it's what the industry needs to be focused on in our limited opportunities for pre-competitive, and cusotmer-supplier, collaborations.

For more information, see the SEMI website at www.semi.org/productivity

Trade Shows and the Recession

Take a look around you. The industry is in the worst depression in history. After a dismal 2008, capital spending will be down 20-30% in 2009 and 2010 seems a lot a farther than 365 days away. Customers are consolidating and new fabs are not getting built. Top tier suppliers are dropping employees by the busload. Fab capacity is rising. Companies are going under; careers are being lost.

So, what you should do with your marketing and trade show budget? Cut it to the bone right? Save money, save people. Hunker down and live to fight to another day, right?

Not so fast.

Professor John Quelch of Harvard Business School says in an article, “How to Market in a Recession”:

“This is not the time to cut advertising. It is well documented that brands that increase advertising during a recession, when competitors are cutting back, can improve market share and return on investment at lower cost than during good economic times….”

The fact is the market doesn’t care about the macro business environment. Buyers are people just like you and me who make decisions and form opinions based on the same criteria they always use. During a recession, they may not have as much money to spend, but they are still forming judgments about you and your competitors. When they do buy, their judgments and opinions will be used to pick winners and losers. They will form these opinions based upon your sales pitch, your data sheets, your reputation, your product positioning, your pricing, and a lot of other things. They will form these opinions with or without trade shows. Some of the factors you can control and some you can’t.

During tough times, you can exclusively rely upon your great products and technologies and assume your customer will use the exact feature/benefit calculations as your product planning team. You can rely upon your sales people and assume they are better than your competitors. Who needs marketing? It’s a recession and we can’t afford it.

But smart business people know that products without marketing are commodities without margins. You better be the low cost producer or go home.

Marketing is the active process of differentiating your products in ways that are understandable and meaningful to your customers. Sales people alone can’t deliver differentiation. Technology alone can’t deliver differentiation and neither can company reputation. Smart companies that invest in product differentiation are also usually the ones who make sure they are telling their customers about the value of the diffentiation in creative, compelling and convincing ways. Usually this means more than a Powerpoint sale spitch and email price negotiation. That;s how you sell salt, not advanced technology.

So what’s the best way to deliver meaningful, margin-creating, share-building differentiation in this industry?

Don’t know. It depends on the product, the company and customer.

But I do know what happens to trade shows during a recession?

The weak competitors fall away. Good firms exhibit and pick up business.

SEMICON Japan

I am writing from Day 2 of SEMICON Japan and it’s a beautiful day with Mt Fuji out my window. You would hardly notice there is world economic crisis going on.

While the industry slump is omnipresent, the aisles are packed and some encouraging news about the economic rebound has been heard in a few, isolated places. During the Market Symposium, both iSupply and Bill McClean of IC Insights were optimistic that the eventual rebound will start mid 2009. This outlook was shared by Masashi Marumachi, Corp SVP at Toshiba and Frank Huang, Chairman of Powerchip. McClean is especially optimistic on the second half recovery start, seeing low oil prices, coordinated global economic stimulus, low inventories, and historical precedents as solid indicators. This is considerably better outlook than some doomsayers who suggest the upturn won’t occur until 2010.

Some data on SEMICON Japan:
1476 exhibitors (1548 in 2008, a record year)
4450 booths (down from 4602 in 2008, again a record)

Several exhibitors have reduced expenses by limiting the number of tools exhibited and many exhibitors have reduced staff attendance (especially international exhibitors).

Still too early too predict visitor attendance. Probably down 10%. Web traffic is up 25%; maybe folks who aren’t here are vicariously attending through the Internet.

While the business climate has dampened the mood, innovation is on the move with many product announcements, especially TSV, mask making, flip chip, metrology.
SI featured a few.

As always, the Semiconductor Technology Symposium has diverse and outstanding content. All key segments of the industry are covered with full-day and half day programs. This is enabled by a great facility at Makuhari (deep content requires lots of rooms) and the great contributions from the active participation of many committees.

What I am most proud of in the programs is how they draw upon what you should know, what you need to know, and what you what you like to know but don’t have leading edge understanding of the most advanced scientific and engineering concepts in the world today.

What you should know is best illustrated by the outstanding keynotes on sustainability and the industry’s role in combating climate change.

What you need to know are the latest products and solutions that can be used to solve real production and design challenges in today’s fabs.

And what you would like to know is how the winners of the 15th annual STS Awards for outstanding technical presentations will affect your company and business.

This combination of industry advocacy, updates on the latest advances in equipment and material solutions, and advanced peer-reviewed technical papers is the mix we try to achieve to at every SEMICON. While most SEMICONs do not feature peer review technical papers, they do try to present the “what’s next” topics, developments and ideas that are just over the horizon. It’s this combination that make SEMICON so unique in the exposition world and so central to our industry.

Applied Materials Silicon Valley Turkey Trot

Please join me for a fun run on Thanksgiving Day at the annual Silicon Valley Turkey Trot, sponsored Applied Materials.

Start times for the 10K and 5K races are 9:00am. Proceeds go to local charities.

To make it easier to participate, I will reimburse you for registration fees (lust let me know ahead of time). In addition, if you can run the 10K faster than 50 minutes, I will donate $50 to your favorite charity.

For more information, http://svturkeytrot.com/

UPDATE 11/29/2008: Despite spending Wednesday touring wineries with my family in Napa Valley, I woke up early Thursday and ran a 48:36 in the 10K. It was obviously a very slow field, becuase this placed me 8th in my age group (0ver 100 runners) and about 220 out 2500 runners. I've run faster, but never placed this high in a big 10K. Like I said, weak field.

Launching a New Event Brand :SOLARCON

The growth and importance of PV manufacturing has driven the need for SEMI to create a new event brand: SOLARCON. Each of the SOLARCON events in Korea, China, and Singapore will be co-located with existing SEMICON events in the regions. Each of these events had a prominent PV exhibitor and attendee base and strong program this year, and exhibitors were near-universal in the support for continued growth in the PV area.

In co-locating with SEMICON, SOLARCON will leverage the existing visitor and show infrastructure, allowing exhibiting companies serving the photovoltaic and microelectronics markets to reach both communities without needing multiple exhibits in multiple events. The co-location strategy also continues SEMI's commitment to grow existing shows and partnerships while reducing the proliferation of new stand-alone events.
The thinking behind the branding was that PV is a distinct and separate community from semiconductors and it needed its own identity. While manufacturing leaders understand the synergy between PV and chip making—and do not want more events to dilute the audience--the PV industry is too diverse and large to feel entirely comfortable depending on a “semi-com”. While increasingly the PV industry is being populated with veterans from the chip industry, they also attract many young engineers who have no relationship SEMI and SEMICONs.

The name SOLARCON is an obvious “frankenword” combining solar with the CON from SEMICON. The result is a hoped-for brand extension that provides security and stature, with the necessary identification with solar industry. It seems like a simple and easy name, but we struggled with considering many alternatives and whether to focus on PV rather than solar.

The new name will allow us to better target and differentiate our exhibitor and attendee marketing and program development.

The new events and dates announced are:

SOLARCON Korea, January 20–22, 2009, COEX, Seoul, Korea
SOLARCON China, March 17–19, 2009, SNIEC, Shanghai, China
SOLARCON Singapore, May 20–22, 2009, Suntec Exhibiton Centre, Singapore

The SOLARCON events in Korea, China, and Singapore join other SEMI and PV Group-sponsored and supported PV events including PV Japan, Intersolar (Munich), and Intersolar North America, the latter co-located with SEMICON West in San Francisco.

We have just announced a new president and office and India, so you might see the announcement of SOLARCON India very shortly.